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Gary Shilling

President/Founder

Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a consultancy. He is author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.”

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US-ECONOMY-EMPLOYMENT

Bloomberg Opinion

The US Labor Market Is Looser Than It Appears

If there really isn’t any slack, then why are real wages falling? It’s only a matter of time before the layoffs occur.

October 4, 2022

October 4, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The US Labor Market Is Looser Than It Appears

If there really isn’t any slack, then why are real wages falling? It’s only a matter of time before the layoffs occur.

US-ECONOMY-EMPLOYMENT

September 2, 2022

September 2, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Wall Street Is in Denial Over the Economy

Everyone, from corporate CEOs to investors, is too focused on the still decent nominal data when the inflation-adjusted numbers tell a more dire story.

Hong Kong Dollar, Chinese Yuan and US Dollar Banknotes As Currency Peg Intervention From HKMA Continues Into Third Day

August 22, 2022

August 22, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Fed’s Forward Guidance Is Increasing Market Volatility

The basic problem with the policy is that it depends on data that the central bank has a miserable record of forecasting.

White Knuckle Ride

August 5, 2022

August 5, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Google Trends Is Now an Arbiter of Economic Downturns

There’s currently a high correlation between declining consumer confidence and the rising appearance of the word “recession” in internet searches.

Google Threatens to Remove Search in Australia as Spat Escalates

June 29, 2022

June 29, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy

US Treasuries are starting to flag a recession that looks to be unavoidable.

Northeast City of York Ahead of UK Inflation Figures

May 27, 2022

May 27, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Commodities Will Be the Next Market to Succumb

The bulls may soon regret their enthusiasm as both demand and supply forces look as if they will soon start to depress prices.

SYRIA-CONFLICT-ECONOMY-AGRICULTURE

May 12, 2022

May 12, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The Rising Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc With US Trade

A strong currency may be in America’s national interests over the long term, but right now the hit to exports is a concern.

Palestinian Government Gives Emergency Payments To Thousands Of Desperate Civil Servants

May 2, 2022

May 2, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The Ideal Portfolio to Survive a Bear Market

Given how much the economy has changed in such a short period, what worked in the past may not work now.

FRANCE-ZOO-WEATHER

April 28, 2022

April 28, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Dismal GDP Report Raises the Odds of a Recession This Year

Bloated inventories held the economy back in the first quarter and will take many months and discounting to shrink.

Londoners Hit The Shops As The Sales Season Begins

April 13, 2022

April 13, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 2

An unprecedented moment in history is upending significant parts of the world order, perhaps permanently.

TOPSHOT-US-STOCKS-MARKETS-OPEN

April 12, 2022

April 12, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 1

An unprecedented moment in history is upending significant parts of the world order, perhaps permanently.

Croupiers Hone Their Skills At Casino School

April 4, 2022

April 4, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

U.S. Economy Is Doomed Without Stronger Consumer Spending

With real incomes in the U.S. falling and households reluctant to tap their savings, growth this year will be minimal — or worse.

February Data Shows Inflation Takes Toll On Consumer's Spending During The Month

March 9, 2022

March 9, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The Fed Expects a Soft Landing. Don't Count on It.

The odds that Chair Jerome Powell can avoid forcing the economy into a recession are getting longer by the day.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee

March 7, 2022

March 7, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

U.S. Debt Is Massive and Expanding. It's Also Under Control.

The idea that even a small increase in rates would force the government to borrow just to pay the interest on its bonds is a nice theory, but the numbers don’t add up.

Manufacturing Workers Push For More Pay And Flexible Work Hours

February 9, 2022

February 9, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down

Builders are ramping up supply just as a record low percentage of Americans say it’s a good time to buy a home.

Illinois County Sees Nation's Largest Population Drop

January 31, 2022

January 31, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

Bloated Inventories Are Poised to Slow the U.S. Economy

Getting rid of those excess stockpiles will have negative effects that are mirror images of the positive effects of building them.

At The Store

January 3, 2022

January 3, 2022

OpinionGary Shilling

The Stock Market Is Too Narrowly Focused

When just a handful of companies lead equities higher, trouble often follows for investors.

NYC's Museum Of American Finance Opens Window On Wall St's Past

December 31, 2021

December 31, 2021

OpinionGary Shilling

It's All Uphill From Here for Corporate America

Fat profit margins are likely to buckle under the pressure to boost worker compensation.

Worker's Power

December 10, 2021

December 10, 2021

OpinionGary Shilling

Rising Inventories Are a Bearish Indicator

Don’t be surprised if retailers are forced into heavy discounting and liquidation sales after enticing consumers to buy early this holiday season.

Shoppers Look For Deals On Black Friday As Supply Crunch Continues

December 8, 2021

December 8, 2021

OpinionGary Shilling

Human Ingenuity Will Prevent Climate Catastrophe

Brains and substitutions have always beat major economic problems and shortages, and probably always will.

NETHERLANDS CLIMATE CONFERENCE