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        <title><![CDATA[Gary Shilling - President/Founder]]></title>
        <description><![CDATA[Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a consultancy. He is author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.”]]></description>
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        <copyright><![CDATA[Copyright 2026 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]]></copyright>
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        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The US Labor Market Is Looser Than It Appears]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[If there really isn’t any slack, then why are real wages falling? It’s only a matter of time before the layoffs occur. ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-04/the-us-labor-market-is-looser-than-it-appears</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Tue, 04 Oct 2022 10:00:15 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>A &quot;We Are Hiring&quot; sign is posted in front of a restaurant in Los Angeles, California on August 17, 2022. - &quot;Help Wanted&quot; ads are proliferating across the United States, as companies struggle to deal with a worker shortage caused by the pandemic, a rash of early retirements and restrictive immigration laws. More than 10 million openings went unfilled in June, according to government data, while fewer than six million people were seeking work, even as employers desperately try to boost hiring amid a frenzy of consumer spending. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Wall Street Is in Denial Over the Economy]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Everyone, from corporate CEOs to investors, is too focused on the still decent nominal data when the inflation-adjusted numbers tell a more dire story.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-02/wall-street-is-in-denial-over-the-real-economy</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2022 10:00:08 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>The portrait of U.S. founding father Benjamin Franklin is displayed on a U.S. one-hundred dollar banknote in an arranged photograph taken in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, April 23, 2020. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened for a third straight day this week to defend its currency peg as the local dollar touched the strong end of its trading band.</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Fed’s Forward Guidance Is Increasing Market Volatility]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[The basic problem with the policy is that it depends on data that the central bank has a miserable record of forecasting.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-22/federal-reserve-forward-guidance-is-increasing-market-volatility</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2022 10:00:20 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>circa 1955: Expressions of fear and excitement on the faces of riders on the roller-coaster at Palisades Park, New Jersey, usually indicate that they will stay on board for another ride. (Photo by Orlando /Three Lions/Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Google Trends Is Now an Arbiter of Economic Downturns]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[There’s currently a high correlation between declining consumer confidence and the rising appearance of the word “recession” in internet searches.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-05/are-we-in-a-recession-google-searches-allude-to-economic-downturn</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Fri, 05 Aug 2022 10:00:30 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>(EDITORS NOTE: Multiple exposures were combined in camera to produce this image.) The Google logo on the company&apos;s homepage, arranged on a desktop computer in Sydney, Australia, on Friday, Jan. 22, 2021. Google threatened to disable its search engine in Australia if its forced to pay local publishers for news, a dramatic escalation of a months-long standoff with the government.</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[US Treasuries are starting to flag a recession that looks to be unavoidable.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-29/bond-market-rally-signals-an-impending-economic-recession</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Wed, 29 Jun 2022 09:00:09 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>A promotional sale sign in a White Stuff shop in York, UK, on Monday, June 20, 2022. On Wednesday, inflation is set to rocket to a new 40-year high with the cost of goods leaving factories already racing ahead at a double-digit pace.</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Commodities Will Be the Next Market to Succumb]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[The bulls may soon regret their enthusiasm as both demand and supply forces look as if they will soon start to depress prices.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-27/commodities-will-be-the-next-market-to-succumb</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Fri, 27 May 2022 09:00:49 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>A farmer holds in his hands wheat kernels during the harvest season, in a field in the countryside of al-Kaswa, south of Syria&apos;s capital Damascus, on June 18, 2020. - Heavy rain and reduced violence provided a relief to Syrian farmers with a good harvest this year, as a tanking economy leaves millions hungry across his war-torn country. Prior to the outbreak of the conflict in 2011, Syria produced more than 4.1 million tonnes of wheat, enough to feed its entire population. But production plunged to record lows during the war, boosting reliance on imports, mainly from regime ally Russia. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP) (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images)</media:description>
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            <title><![CDATA[The Rising Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc With US Trade]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[A strong currency may be in America’s national interests over the long term, but right now the hit to exports is a concern.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-12/the-rising-dollar-is-wreaking-havoc-with-us-trade</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2022 10:00:11 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>GAZA, GAZA STRIP - JUNE 19: A Palestinian government employee holds cash that he received as part of his salary, at a post office, June 19, 2006 in Gaza City, Gaza Strip. Days after delivering suitcases full of cash into the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian government today distributed $300 emergency payments to thousands of desperate civil servants who haven&apos;t been paid in nearly four months. However, in a sign of the government&apos;s continuing troubles, the money was distributed through special postal accounts after local banks, fearful of violating international anti-terror laws, refused to handle the cash. (Photo By Abid Katib/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The Ideal Portfolio to Survive a Bear Market]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Given how much the economy has changed in such a short period, what worked in the past may not work now.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-02/personal-finance-the-ideal-portfolio-to-survive-a-bear-market</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2022 09:00:16 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ijybkcH1eXhY/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>A grizzly bear yawns in its enclosure in La Fleche zoological parc, western France, on August 7, 2020, as a heat wave hits France with temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius. (Photo by JEAN-FRANCOIS MONIER / AFP) (Photo by JEAN-FRANCOIS MONIER/AFP via Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Dismal GDP Report Raises the Odds of a Recession This Year]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Bloated inventories held the economy back in the first quarter and will take many months and discounting to shrink.  ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-28/dismal-gdp-report-raises-the-odds-of-a-recession-this-year</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Thu, 28 Apr 2022 17:00:22 GMT</pubDate>
            <media:content url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/itrkl4nL_Epo/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg" type="image/jpeg">
                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/itrkl4nL_Epo/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>LONDON - DECEMBER 27: Bargain hunters shop in Oxford Street on December 27, 2003 in London. The winter sales usually begin after Christmas Day, although this year many shops began marking down goods beforehand. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 2]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[An unprecedented moment in history is upending significant parts of the world order, perhaps permanently.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-13/eleven-themes-for-the-new-global-economy-part-2</link>
            <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-13/eleven-themes-for-the-new-global-economy-part-2</guid>
            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Wed, 13 Apr 2022 09:00:02 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iiTfDTZcDk1U/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>TOPSHOT - Meric Greenbaum, Designated Market Maker IMC financial looks up at the board before the opening bell right before trading halted on the New York Stock Exchange on March 9, 2020 in New York. - Trading on Wall Street was temporarily halted early March 9, 2020 as US stocks joined a global rout on crashing oil prices and mounting worries over the coronavirus.The suspension was triggered after the S&amp;P 500&apos;s losses hit seven percent. Near 1340 GMT, the broad-based index was down more than 200 points at 2,764.21. (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP) (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 1]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[An unprecedented moment in history is upending significant parts of the world order, perhaps permanently. ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-12/eleven-themes-for-the-new-global-economy-part-1</link>
            <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-12/eleven-themes-for-the-new-global-economy-part-1</guid>
            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Tue, 12 Apr 2022 09:00:03 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iI3UPJqVHa6I/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>BLACKPOOL, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 02: Card shuffling is taught at Blackpool&apos;s Fylde College Gaming School on May 2nd, 2006, Blackpool, England. Blackpool and The Fylde College has become the first educational establishment in Britain to offer training and qualifications in gaming. The gaming academy came into existence after changes in the UK gaming laws and created a skills gap in the industry. Students are trained in every aspect in a casino form running card tables to servicing slot machines. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)</media:description>
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            <title><![CDATA[U.S. Economy Is Doomed Without Stronger Consumer Spending]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[With real incomes in the U.S. falling and households reluctant to tap their savings, growth this year will be minimal — or worse.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-04/u-s-economy-is-doomed-without-stronger-consumer-spending</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2022 13:30:02 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 31: A shopper carries a shopping bag while walking by a retail space for lease in the Union Square shopping district on March 31, 2022 in San Francisco, California. According to a report by the Commerce Department, inflation is taking its toll on the economy with consumer spending inching up a weak 0.2 percent in February compared with a 2.7 percent jump in January. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The Fed Expects a Soft Landing. Don't Count on It.]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[The odds that Chair Jerome Powell can avoid forcing the economy into a recession are getting longer by the day.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-09/federal-reserve-expects-a-soft-landing-don-t-count-on-it</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Wed, 09 Mar 2022 18:00:19 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iDTn0Qb8jiuI/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 03: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies at a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Fed&apos;s &quot;Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,&quot; on Capitol Hill on March 3, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[U.S. Debt Is Massive and Expanding. It's Also Under Control.]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[The idea that even a small increase in rates would force the government to borrow just to pay the interest on its bonds is a nice theory, but the numbers don’t add up. ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/ballooning-u-s-debt-is-a-bomb-that-won-t-detonate</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2022 11:47:06 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>BERLIN, GERMANY - JANUARY 10: An alarm clock meant to symbolize the demand for workers to better determine their working hours stands near where workers from nearby Daimler and General Electric production plants were participating in a strike in demands for better pay and more flexible working conditions on January 10, 2018 in Berlin, Germany. The strike is part of dozens nationwide organized by the IG Metall labour union, which is pressing employers for a 6% increase in wages and the option of a limited, two-year 28 hour work week for workers in particular circumstances. Employers counter the demands would require them to hire at least 150,000 more workers at a time when the German manufacturing sector is already struggling to find qualified workers amidst low unemployment. IG Metall is the world&apos;s largest labour union and has 3.9 million members. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)</media:description>
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        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Builders are ramping up supply just as a record low percentage of Americans say it’s a good time to buy a home.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-09/the-housing-party-is-starting-to-wind-down</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Wed, 09 Feb 2022 11:00:17 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:description>CAIRO, ILLINOIS - OCTOBER 13: A row of abandoned homes sit along a residential street on October 13, 2021 in Cairo, Illinois. According to U.S. census data, Alexander County Illinois, of which Cairo is the county seat, lost more than 36 precent of its population between 2010 and 2020, the largest drop of any county in the United States. At its peak, Cairo had a population of more than 15,000 residents. Now, the historic river town, which sits at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, is littered with abandoned homes and businesses and has a population of less than 3,000. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)</media:description>
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        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Bloated Inventories Are Poised to Slow the U.S. Economy]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Getting rid of those excess stockpiles will have negative effects that are mirror images of the positive effects of building them.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-31/bloated-inventories-are-poised-to-slow-the-u-s-economy</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 31 Jan 2022 14:00:14 GMT</pubDate>
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                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iZsURg45sGwk/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>A woman taking canned goods from the shelves of a grocery store circa 1930. (Photo by Keystone View/FPG/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[The Stock Market Is Too Narrowly Focused]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[When just a handful of companies lead equities higher, trouble often follows for investors. ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-03/the-stock-market-is-too-narrowly-focused</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Mon, 03 Jan 2022 12:00:10 GMT</pubDate>
            <media:content url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/igVHlWJ9uF_U/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg" type="image/jpeg">
                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/igVHlWJ9uF_U/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>NEW YORK - OCTOBER 07: A bronze statue of a bull fighting with a bear is displayed at the Museum of American Finance October 7, 2008 on Wall St. in New York City. An affiliate of the Smithsonian Institution and located in the former headquarters of the Bank of New York, the museum serves as a financial education center. Exhibitions include a history of U.S. currency, ticker tape from the &apos;Great Crash&quot; of October 29, 1929 and a section of the 1858 Trans-Atlantic cable. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[It's All Uphill From Here for Corporate America]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Fat profit margins are likely to buckle under the pressure to boost worker compensation. ]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-31/it-s-all-uphill-from-here-for-corporate-america</link>
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            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Fri, 31 Dec 2021 12:00:10 GMT</pubDate>
            <media:content url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iZqPted5ZzKk/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg" type="image/jpeg">
                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iZqPted5ZzKk/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>Striking building workers raise their fists in salute during a rally in the Bois de Vincennes, Paris, 13th June 1936. (Photo by Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Rising Inventories Are a Bearish Indicator]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Don’t be surprised if retailers are forced into heavy discounting and liquidation sales after enticing consumers to buy early this holiday season.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/holiday-shopping-rising-inventories-are-not-a-bullish-indicator</link>
            <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/holiday-shopping-rising-inventories-are-not-a-bullish-indicator</guid>
            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Fri, 10 Dec 2021 12:00:24 GMT</pubDate>
            <media:content url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHOOIp4dMc44/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg" type="image/jpeg">
                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHOOIp4dMc44/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 26: Shoppers view merchandise through a store window during Black Friday in The Galleria mall on November 26, 2021 in Houston, Texas. Retailers are anticipating a busier holiday season than last year after the COVID-19 pandemic caused the quietest Black Friday in 20 years. Shortages of many goods due to supply issues are limiting the availability of some items including cars, appliances and computers during this holiday season. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)</media:description>
            </media:content>
        </item>
        <item>
            <title><![CDATA[Human Ingenuity Will Prevent Climate Catastrophe]]></title>
            <description><![CDATA[Brains and substitutions have always beat major economic problems and shortages, and probably always will.]]></description>
            <link>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-08/climate-change-human-ingenuity-will-prevent-catastrophe</link>
            <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-08/climate-change-human-ingenuity-will-prevent-catastrophe</guid>
            <category><![CDATA[world]]></category>
            <dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></dc:creator>
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Dec 2021 14:00:19 GMT</pubDate>
            <media:content url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iT4EE.dPKPSE/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg" type="image/jpeg">
                <media:thumbnail url="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iT4EE.dPKPSE/v1/piHJkQ_WoLj1E/-1x-1.jpg"/>
                <media:description>382103 15: (NETHERLANDS OUT) Environmentalists finish building a the 500 meter dike November 18, 2000 outside the 6th United Nations Conference on Climate Control in The Hague, The Netherlands. Some 4,000 environmentalists from 25 countries participated in the protest. Over 180 countries that have signed on to the climate change convention gathered to discuss how to halt and reverse harmful man-made emissions believed to threaten the planet with rising temperatures, droughts and more destructive storms. (Photo by Michel Porro/Newsmakers)</media:description>
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