Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 2
An unprecedented moment in history is upending significant parts of the world order, perhaps permanently.
The new economy is harder to navigate.
Photographer: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
My column yesterday outlined six categories of winners and losers spawned by the current disruptive global economic environment as it transfers incomes and assets. Here are five more that result from the repricing of goods and assets.
1. Slowing global growth and disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along with additional drags on the U.S. economy. Importers and U.S. retailers built inventories late last year in anticipation of exuberant retail sales. In the third quarter, 2.2 percentage points of the 2.3% real GDP growth was from inventory-building and 5.4 percentage points of the fourth quarter’s 6.9% annual rate rise. But real retail sales have been falling and consumers are pushing back against rising prices by shifting to lower-cost house brands and cutting back on nonessentials. Liquidating excess inventories this year could well have mirror-image effects on the economy, resulting in several quarters of negative real GDP growth.