The Bond Bulls Have Run Out of Compelling Arguments

George S. Patton once said, "If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking." That contrarian approach suited the controversial U.S. Army general in his drive through German-occupied France during World War II. It might also suit those navigating the $14.5 trillion market for U.S. Treasury securities today.

The herd mentality has rarely been more evident than in recent weeks, as an army of pundits, strategists and investors have said that a 3 percent 10-year Treasury yield would signal the end of this brutal six-month-long bear market in bonds. While the 3 percent barrier did mark the end of the last bear market during the infamous "taper tantrum" of 2013, the roots of this latest pullback are deeper, and the arguments for a continuation of the trend remain more compelling than any case mustered by the bulls.