Scott Dorf

Former Managing Director

Latest

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Bloomberg Opinion

The Bear Market In Bonds Is Just Getting Started

The recent drop in yields will be tested by a surge in borrowing by the U.S. government and a ballooning budget deficit.

March 26, 2018

March 26, 2018

OpinionScott Dorf

The Bear Market In Bonds Is Just Getting Started

The recent drop in yields will be tested by a surge in borrowing by the U.S. government and a ballooning budget deficit.

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February 23, 2018

February 23, 2018

OpinionScott Dorf

The Bond Bulls Have Run Out of Compelling Arguments

The roots of this latest pullback are deeper than even the infamous "taper tantrum" of 2013.

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February 9, 2018

February 9, 2018

OpinionScott Dorf

The Era of Bond Shortages and Conundrums Is Over

Inflation is starting to stir and central banks are less dovish, meaning there's very little to keep yields from continuing to rise.

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January 10, 2018

January 10, 2018

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market's Bulls Are Shaken, If Not Shattered

There are unmistakable signals from central banks that the era of unlimited liquidity is ending.

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January 2, 2018

January 2, 2018

OpinionScott Dorf

For Bond Traders, 2018 Won't Be Business as Usual

The Fed, inflation and increased Treasury supply are likely to cause yields to shift higher in a parallel move.

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December 20, 2017

December 20, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

There's a Bear Raid Underway in the Bond Market

The economic picture has been brightening for some time, but it is the supply outlook that truly threatens Treasuries going forward.

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December 4, 2017

December 4, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market Trends Move More in Favor of the Bears

The odds of a break above the higher end of the recent trading range in 10-year Treasury yields look like a better bet.

Bond traders better know their chess.

November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Flat U.S. Yield Curve Is All About Momentum and Algos

This trend has historically been associated with a slowing economy, but what's baffling to many is that there are no signs of weakness.

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November 6, 2017

November 6, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Traders Exit Pivotal Week With No Signs of Fear

The only thing for traders to do now is wait for the Fed’s December meeting and watch how the tax plan unfolds.

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October 24, 2017

October 24, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Buying the Dip Is a Losing Strategy in Today's Bond Market

The case for higher yields is getting stronger by the day as the Fed retreats and supply ramps up.

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September 26, 2017

September 26, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market Carves Path Back to Familiar Territory

The Fed's efforts to boost longer-term yields will be like pushing on a string.

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September 14, 2017

September 14, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market Bogeymen Make a Return Appearance

Traders fear a return of inflation and supply at an inopportune time.

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September 8, 2017

September 8, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market's Melt-Up Has All the Hallmarks of Fear

Offers to sell are sparse, liquidity has deteriorated, and the tone can best be described as near-panicked.

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September 6, 2017

September 6, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

The Bond Market's Latest Rally Is No Knee-Jerk Reaction

Unlike many prior squeezes in U.S. Treasuries, there are no signs of wretched excess.

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August 29, 2017

August 29, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Don't Mistake The Calm in Bond Markets For Lack of Concern

Volatility-starved traders may need to wait until 2018 for the spark that gets the bond market moving again.

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August 9, 2017

August 9, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market Pressures Build as Summer Drags On

It won’t be long before the tectonic plates of bond supply, economic growth and inflation grind so hard that something breaks.

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July 12, 2017

July 12, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Fed Will Unwind the Balance Sheet at an Awkward Moment

Raising the government's borrowing costs just when the government needs to cover growing deficits.

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July 6, 2017

July 6, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Bond Market's Positive Vibes Suddenly Disappear

Threats are evident from hawkish central bankers, improved economic data and ominous trading patterns.

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June 29, 2017

June 29, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

The Fed Tries to Change the Bond Market Narrative

Despite a recent back up in yields, the market still reflects a "show me" attitude when it comes to growth and inflation.

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June 15, 2017

June 15, 2017

OpinionScott Dorf

Can the Bond Market's Message Get Any Clearer?

Bond traders are trying to force the central bank to back off its hawkish stance.

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