Why Hungary’s Vote This Time Is No Cakewalk for Orban

Hungarians have become used to their elections being forgone conclusions. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the populist ringleader of Europe who’s amassed more power than any of his predecessors since communism ended in Hungary three decades ago, has been wiping the floor with the opposition for years. But despite a comfortable lead in opinion polls, a victory in the April 8 parliamentary ballot isn’t a given for Orban, as allegations of corruption and a resurgent opposition complicate his path to a third consecutive term.

Orban, 54, has used parliamentary supermajorities since 2010 to transform Hungary into a self-styled “illiberal state” modeled on Russia. He’s stacked independent institutions such as the chief prosecutor’s office with his allies, while oligarchs with links to the ruling party hold sway over the economy. Orban has been at the forefront of the anti-immigrant turn in Europe, having built a border fence to keep out newcomers. Orban’s style of governing has been mimicked by Poland, which like Hungary has clashed with the European Union over the alleged erosion of democracy. Another supermajority would give Orban the chance to boost the power of the oligarchs and further restrict the independence of institutions such as the judiciary. His defeat would enable a new leader to roll back his illiberal measures. It would also weaken his position as an ideological beacon for the populist movement that’s swept countries from Poland to Italy.