The Justin Trudeau Lovefest Gets a Reality Check

So far, Canada has largely avoided the kind of populist upheaval that put Donald Trump in the White House, undercut Chancellor Angela Merkel, and gave rise to Brexit. Much of the credit for this lands on Justin Trudeau, the buoyant 45-year-old heartthrob prime minister with a penchant for selfies and quirky socks who champions free trade and welcomes refugees. He’s cultivated an image of a tolerant, open, progressive Canada that, incidentally, boasts the strongest economic growth in the Group of Seven.

Outside Canada, it looks enviable: a charismatic leader with a powerful majority government and a solid economy. But internally, the shine is fading. Two years into Trudeau’s first term, a polling aggregator run by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. shows his support at 37.9 percent, down eight points from a year ago—still strong in Canada’s three-party system. He campaigned as a friendly Everyguy, but scandals within Trudeau’s administration have sullied that image. His finance minister, Bill Morneau, isunder fire for holding substantial shares in his family’s business through a shell company. Although that’s not technically against the rules, Morneau says he’s sold his shares. A bid for tax reform that would’ve hit high-earning professionals blew up, and Trudeau’s chief fundraiser, Stephen Bronfman, is linked in the Paradise Papers to an offshore trust. Trudeau himself was dinged for a secret vacation last Christmas at the Aga Khan’s private island.