, Columnist
Today's Hot Candidate: Scott Walker
The good showing will bring in money and other resources for Walker; those, in turn, could buy him further success and help him ride out whatever bad times might be ahead.
Onward!
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Let’s talk early-stage presidential primary polls. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has had something of a surge over the last week. What should we make of it? Is there any information to be squeezed out of these polls?
I’m tempted to say Ignore Those Polls! As John Sides and Lynn Vavreck showed during the last Republican presidential contest, polling surges reflect recent positive media coverage; they aren't predictions of future polling success (or, eventually, actual votes). Moreover, there’s a predictable cycle: A candidate who hasn’t been covered much gets positive publicity, spikes in the polls, earns a round of media scrutiny amounting to negative publicity, and the polling surge reverses.