, Columnist
Recession Guesswork Is Just as Reliable as It Sounds
Predictions of an economic downturn in the US need to be taken seriously but not literally, especially in the current environment.
Taking stock.
Photographer: Angela Weiss/AFP
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The term “recession” made a big comeback in news stories and social media posts this month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius was among those who formally bumped up his odds of a downturn to considerable media hoopla. But in Goldman’s assessment, the recession risks never got particularly elevated relative to normal — and now they’re falling again.
Here’s the latest note from Hatzius and company over the weekend: