Goldman Cuts US Recession Risk Following Retail Sales, Jobs Data
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25%, citing this week’s retail sales and jobless claims data.
If the August jobs report set for release on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good, we would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year” before a revision on Aug. 2, the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Saturday.