The NBA Should Call China’s Bluff

China's state-run television announced today that it won’t broadcast a slate of preseason NBA games to be played there this week. It’s a calculated escalation of a backlash against the league after one of its general managers tweeted in support of Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement on Friday. The tweet was deleted and the league apologized. But the government has been only too happy to amplify public anger, while hinting that the NBA's sizable business in China is at risk.

Don't bet on it. Far from being vulnerable in this fight, the NBA holds all the leverage. It should take stock of basketball's long history in China, its own enduring popularity there, and the 800 million Chinese who watched its broadcasts last year. The government won’t be keen to pick a fight that tempts so many fans to defy it, and the NBA should be able to safely stand its ground.

Few foreign institutions have proved as resilient in China as basketball. It was introduced in the 1890s at missionary schools and YMCAs in ports and other cities where Western influence remained strong after the Opium Wars. Many of China's 20th-century revolutionaries embraced the sport; in the 1930s, Red Army soldiers fashioned baskets out of bamboo and played at their spartan bases. By the early 1960s, China had become a regional basketball power. Although the Cultural Revolution put an end to organized competition, the game remained popular, in part because it required little setup and – unlike soccer – didn't impinge on agricultural land.

In 1979, the Washington Bullets became the first NBA team to play in China. When Dick Motta, the Bullets’ head coach, held a clinic during the trip, 19,500 Chinese basketball coaches showed up. "Everywhere you went and there was open space, you saw a basketball hoop," he later recalled. In 1987, China's CCTV broadcast its first NBA matchup. Both the game and the league have been on an upward trajectory ever since, surging ahead of other sports – ping pong and diving, for instance – where China has traditionally excelled, and even outpacing soccer, allegedly President Xi Jinping's favorite.

No single factor can account for this popularity. But certainly the rise of smartphones has made it easier to watch bite-sized NBA highlights that pickup players emulate on China's countless urban courts. Perhaps equally important, today's offense-oriented game – exemplified by stars like James Harden – is simply more exciting and in sync with youthful Chinese than contemporary soccer and its rationed-out scoring. Although China has its own pro league, the Chinese Basketball Association, sophisticated local fans have shown little interest in teams that wouldn't qualify for the NBA's developmental league.

Could all that goodwill collapse if the government pressures the NBA’s partners into cancelling broadcasts this season? The long history of failed Chinese boycotts over political matters suggests it won't. To take one recent example, in 2012 violent anti-Japanese protests broke out across China over disputed territorial claims in the East China Sea. A boycott sent the total market share of Japanese cars in China down by 12% in just one month. Yet by the end of the year, Japanese car sales were rebounding and few consumers today worry about whatever offense was caused in 2012.

Of course, no car company has ever inspired the kind of popularity that the NBA enjoys in China. If the government cuts off access to games via official channels, China's rabid hoops fans won’t suddenly shift to the CBA. Instead, they'd use common technical workarounds to evade the block and continue watching – likely in resentful defiance. The good news for the NBA, and its millions of Chinese fans, is that the government understands this risk, and is unlikely to take it. The NBA may feel like it has the weak hand in this matchup. But if this game drags on, the advantage will belong to the player with the crowd behind it.