What Betting Markets Do, and Don’t, Tell Us About Elections
Plus: Calculating the value of an MBA and a look inside the GunTube subculture.
Can a betting market predict her vote?
Photographer: Getty ImagesIt’s become somewhat trendy for the political chattering class to look beyond polls to betting markets to gauge what the electorate is thinking. There are pitfalls, though, as Emily Nicolle writes today. Plus: Businessweek introduces an amazing tool to determine whether an MBA will pay off for you. It’s the Business School ROI Calculator. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up.
In 2016, prediction markets put the likelihood of the UK voting for Brexit around 30%. Then, about a month before the US election, bettors gave Donald Trump a 1-in-4 chance of victory. Suffice to say, both those votes defied the odds.