Scott Duke Kominers, Columnist

Prediction Markets Didn't Call Trump's Win, Either

People who won't talk to pollsters probably also don't bet on elections.

We have a winner.

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
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There’s a lot of reflection, speculation, and soul-searching about the failure of most public-opinion polls to predict Donald Trump’s election victory. But prediction markets – betting markets whose forecasts are often billed as far superior to polls – didn’t do much better.

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