Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Next week’s Fed decision, a tentative US rail pact, and a big Ethereum moment.

Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rates by a super-sized 100 basis points when they meet next week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli. Investors fully expect a 75 basis-point increase when Fed officials gather Sept. 20-21 and see a roughly one-in-three chance they will opt for the bigger move, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio said inflation may eventually force rates into the 4.5%-6% range and warned even an increase to the lower end of that band would lead to a roughly 20% plunge in stocks.