Why the Price of Gas Is the Most Important Number in US Politics
Gasoline accounts for a shrinking share of household budgets, but its political power can still make or break a presidency.
Illustration: Andrés Magán for Bloomberg
In his 1987 book, Trump: The Art of the Deal, then-real estate mogul Donald Trump wrote that one of his 11 “Elements of the Deal” is to “know your market.” Rather than relying on number crunchers or third-party surveys, Trump said he prefers to use his gut: “I like to think I have that instinct.”
Ever since that gut instinct led to him to partner with Israel to attack Iran in February, Trump’s eye has arguably been on the oil market, and, more specifically, the US retail price of gasoline. For decades — coincidentally, at least since the Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979-80 — the price at the pump has been a crucial lens through which Americans judge a president’s success or failure.