This Yield Curve Inversion Is ‘Different,’ Goldman Sachs Says
- Economist Jan Hatzius says term premium is lower than normal
- Consensus is too pessimistic, pressuring long-term rates
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While the deeply inverted yield curve has stoked anxiety among investors about the prospect of a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a different message: stop worrying about it.
“We don’t share the widespread concern about yield curve inversion,” Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist wrote in a note Monday, cutting his assessment of the probability of a recession to 20% from 25%, following a lower-than-expected inflation report last week.