Goldman’s Hatzius Cuts Odds of US Recession in Next Year to 20%
- Recent economic data reinforce positive outlook, Hatzius says
- Ongoing inflation easing, end of Fed rate hikes to buoy growth
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The US economy has a better chance of avoiding a recession in the next 12 months following recent positive data on economic activity and inflation, according to Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“We are cutting our probability that a US recession will start in the next 12 months further from 25% to 20%,” Hatzius wrote in a report published Monday. “The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession.”