Ukraine Swaps Signal 90% Chance of Default as Russia Attacks
- Insurance surges to highest since 2015 debt restructuring
- Ukraine, Russia swap curves invert amid low trading volumes
Ukrainian Military Forces in Kyiv on Feb. 24.
Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
Signs of distress in Ukraine’s debt markets deepened after Russia attacked, with credit-default swaps signaling about 90% probability of default within five years.
The contracts surged to the highest since the country restructured its obligations in 2015, according to data compiled by ICE Data Services. Trading activity is low and they’re no longer being quoted in basis points, which is how the market usually prices risk, although at more than 3,000 basis points they do signify traders’ anxiety over Ukraine’s debt.