The 2016 Guide to Political Predictions
How polls and prediction markets have fared so far.
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks on May 2, 2016, in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
For political junkies, polls and predictions are almost irresistible. But they can also overload us with information that's at best confusing and at worst wrong.
Recent high-profile polling misses—from Israel and the U.K. to Michigan—have prompted concerns that election results can no longer accurately be forecast by surveying the electorate and that technological change is causing an irreversible decline in the industry.