Republicans worried about Donald Trump’s steady march toward the party's nomination have taken some solace in the possibility that, despite his toxic comments, the billionaire businessman might still have a narrow path to the White House driven by an upsurge of white working-class male voters. And this group has indeed supported Trump vigorously throughout the primary season.
But as the eminent political theoretician Sir Isaac Newton once put it, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” A new Democracy Corps poll conducted for the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund illustrates the Democratic counter-reaction to Trump. As this chart shows, interest in the 2016 presidential campaign has soared among each of the key Democratic constituent groups—minorities, millennials, and single white women:
“What you see in this chart,” says Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg of Democracy Corps, “is big engagement since last December among not only core Democratic groups, but also the swing electorate like college[-educated] women who usually split fairly evenly between the parties.”
The survey of 900 likely voters across the nation took place March 17-24, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.27 percentage points, Democracy Corps said.
Democratic political strategists, as well as some Republicans, have long expected that such a counter-reaction would eventually manifest itself.
Trump may be strong enough among non-college white men to increase their turnout. But political campaigns don’t happen in a vacuum. As strong a motivator as Trump has been for his core constituency, this new poll suggests that he’s at least as strong at motivating his Democratic opposition.
“This shows for sure that there’s already a counter-reaction to Trump,” says Greenberg. “And that means we’re getting closer and closer to an earthquake election.”