How One Pollster Saw Trump’s Win Coming
Few predicted Donald Trump’s presidential election. A team from the University of Southern California did.
Why Polling May Be Worse Than Ever
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As Hillary Clinton's nightmarish election night unfolded, the narrative coalesced around one question: How did the pollsters not see this coming?
Not everyone missed it. While closely followed polling averages gave Clinton a 3.2-point edge and preelection forecasts showed her as a heavy favorite, a team at the University of Southern California led by professor Arie Kapteyn had managed to design a poll that proved to be one of the great contrarian forecasts in the modern history of U.S. elections. As of Tuesday morning, it showed Donald Trump leading by a little more than 3 percentage points.