Goldman Sachs Has a Warning For This Quarter's Corporate Earnings

Fewer upside surprises in the cards.
Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg
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When Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin puts on his macro goggles, he sees a disappointing third-quarter earnings season ahead.

"Variables that determine earnings surprises – changes in U.S. economic growth, interest rates, oil price, the dollar, and EPS [earnings per share] revisions – suggest a below-average share of firms will report positive earnings per share surprises (43 percent vs. 46 percent)," he writes in a note to clients. " We see a weak third-quarter reporting season coupled with negative fourth-quarter EPS revisions pushing stocks 2 percent lower to our year-end target of 2,100."