Odds of a Fed Rate Hike This Year Fall Back Below 50%
- U.S. sovereign debt having best start to any year since 2011
- Measure of volatility is close to the lowest level since 2014
The Fed Should be Hiking Rates, Says Stein
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Federal Reserve officials have gone out of their way this week to stress the market is underestimating the odds of an interest-rate increase this year -- and yet the probability of such a move has fallen back below 50 percent.
The view policy makers will be on hold for a long time isn’t “consistent” with what the central bank is saying, San Francisco Fed’s John Williams said Thursday. New York’s William Dudley said on Tuesday the market is underestimating the likelihood of increase. Investors have shrugged off these comments with Treasuries holding onto their best year-to-date performance since 2011. A measure of volatility is close to the lowest since 2014.