Stock Market’s Enduring Record of Calling Presidential Races
- S&P 500 has correctly predicted 19 of 22 elections since 1928
- Equities are at a record, but are divorced from the economy
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For an idea of how a presidential election will go, you could do a lot worse than look at the stock market.
It has a record of prescience that is hard to exaggerate. Since 1928, U.S. equities have correctly signaled who will win, incumbent or challenger, 19 out of 22 times, data compiled by Strategas Research Partners LLC and Bloomberg show. When stocks are higher in the months before a vote, the sitting party has won 86 percent of elections.