Goldman’s $50 Oil View at Risk as Nigerian Militia Hold Fire
- If ceasefire deal is sustainable, oil output could recover
- ‘Cautiously’ assumes disruptions at 350,000 b/d in second half
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said oil may trade below its $50 forecast in the second half of 2016 because of a ceasefire between militants and the government in OPEC member Nigeria.
If the tentative agreement is sustainable, it could lead to higher crude output, with the Nigerian government “optimistically” predicting a return to normal levels by the end of July, analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a note dated June 29. The return of supplies poses a risk to the bank’s price outlook as it would bring the global oil market close to balance over the final six months of the year, according to Goldman.