ECB Rate, U.S. Jobs, OPEC: Week Ahead May 28-June 4

  • French Open, Indy 500, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, Nicklaus Golf
  • U.K., U.S. holidays; Medtronic, Volkswagen, Ahold earnings

The European Central Bank probably will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at zero at a meeting in Vienna while issuing a new quarterly forecast that will signal whether the bank is getting closer to its inflation target. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

U.S. employment probably increased around 160,000 in May, on par with the previous month’s moderate advance and held back in part by a strike at Verizon Communications Inc., economists project the Labor Department to report this coming week.

U.S. consumer spending probably accelerated in April, while American manufacturing barely expanded, other data this week are forecast to show.

Quiet week ahead in U.S. presidential election contests. Residents of the U.S. Virgin Islands will vote with only 12 Democratic delegates at stake.

German automaker Volkswagen, U.S. medical device maker Medtronic, and Dutch grocer Ahold will release earnings along with Canada’s major banks.

Ceremonies and protests will mark the centennial of the Battle of Verdun and 27 years since the Tiananmen Square protests.

Championship finals begin in the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association. Second-round play begins at the French Open, culminating in the Ladies’ and Gentleman’s finals next weekend. The Jack Nicklaus Memorial Tournament brings the world’s best golfers to Ohio.

Saturday, May 28

-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to speak at the Liberal Party annual convention in Winnipeg, Manitoba. 12:15 local time (13:15 EDT).

-Spain’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, speaks at the annual conference of the Catalan business lobby at 12:30 local time in Barcelona, (06:30 EDT).

-South Africa’s ruling African National Congress holds its regular National Executive Committee meeting where President Jacob Zuma’s future in the party could be discussed. Through May 29.

-The second Grand Slam tennis event of 2016, the French Open, enters week two on the clay courts of Roland-Garros in Paris. No. 1-ranked men’s player Novak Djokovic seeks his first victory as Serena Williams defends her women’s title. Through June 5.

-UEFA Champions League soccer final played between Real Madrid and Club Atletico de Madrid in Milan at 21:45 local time (15:45 EDT).

Sunday, May 29

-Iran’s new parliamentarians to pick the assembly’s speaker. A win by reformist Mohammad Reza Aref would help Hassan Rouhani push through his economic agenda and may bring to the fore moderates’ demands for greater civil and political liberties.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Battle of Verdun at 10:30 local time at the memorial (04:30 EDT). Merkel and Hollande will speak following the ceremony at 14:30 (09:30 EDT). European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will be among the guests.

Practice run at the Indianapolis Motorspeedway
Practice run at the Indianapolis Motorspeedway
Photographer: Ronald C. Modra/NHL via Getty Images)

-The 100th running of the Indianapolis 500 is the first ticket sellout in the history of the event, dubbed the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing.” Starting flag drops at 12:15 EDT at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

-The Auction Napa Valley charity event expects over 2000 attendees. In addition to fine Napa Valley wines, one lot from this year’s auction is a chance for 10 couples to spend a day harvesting grapes, then attending a Napa harvest party. Bids wrap up on
June 5. 

Monday, May 30

-Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. and markets are closed; U.K. markets are closed for the Spring bank holiday.

-German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers remarks on sustainable public finances at a conference in Berlin at 11:00 local time (05:00 EDT). Guests include Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute.

-Polish Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to attend an economic forum in Warsaw. Event starts at 10:00 local time (04:00 EDT).

-Israel’s expanded coalition government set to be sworn in. Yisrael Beiteinu party adds five parliamentary seats to the government’s one-seat majority but has strengthened the hardline image of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition toward the Palestinians and peacemaking. No time set.

-U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard is the keynote speaker at the Bank of Korea International Conference 2016. 09:35 in Seoul (20:35 EDT).

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Greece deposit data (April).

-ECONOMY: Euro-area economic confidence (May), German CPI (May), Brazil IGP-M inflation (May), South Korea BSI business confidence survey (June), Japan retail trade (April), Portugal consumer, business confidence (May), Portugal retail sales (April), Portugal industrial production (April), Spain CPI (May), Greece GDP (1Q).

-EARNINGS: OPAP SA.

Tuesday, May 31

-Personal spending in the U.S. probably increased in April at the fastest pace in almost a year, rebounding from early-year weakness as incomes continued to grow, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 EDT in Washington.

-United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the U.S., Yousef Al Otaiba, is among the panel speakers on the Iran nuclear deal at The Brookings Institution. 09:30 EDT in Washington.

-Deutsche Bank hosts its annual Global Financial Services Investor Conference in New York City. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn, Wells Fargo & Co.’s Chief Financial Officer John Shrewsberry and JPMorgan Chase Bank Investment Bank CEO Daniel Pinto are among this year’s presenters. Through June 1.

-Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev visits Munich and Stuttgart, Germany. Agenda to be determined. Through June 1.

-Russia’s Gazprom Pao Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev and Gazprom Export CEO Elena Burmistrova will discuss European gas-export strategy at a news conference in Moscow. 10:00 local time (03:00 EDT).

-Russian anti-monopoly authorities may discuss imposing fines on Google. Event starts at noon, local time in Moscow (05:00 EDT).

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco speaks at the annual meeting of Banca d’Italia. 10:30 in Rome (04:30 EDT).

-Tesla Motors Inc. holds its annual shareholder meeting in Mountain View, California to elect board members and adopt new voting requirements. Earlier this month, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk unveiled an ambitious production plan to build 500,000 electric cars a year by 2018. Click here for livestream. 14:00 local time (17:00 EDT).

-Deadline for Total Gas and Power, a unit of Paris-based Total SA, to respond to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposal that would issue civil penalties of $213.6 million, and claim $9.18 million in unjust profits, over allegations that it manipulated prices at locations in the southwest U.S. between June 2009 and June 2012.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Brazil Central Bank publishes primary budget report, Turkey’s central bank releases minutes of May 24 rates decision, Bulgaria base interest rate decision.

-ECONOMY: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index (March), U.S. Chicago PMI (May), U.S. consumer confidence (May), U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing (May), Canada GDP (March), Euro-area flash CPI (May), euro-area unemployment (April), German unemployment (May), Brazil unemployment (April), Brazil primary budget balance (April), Hong Kong retail sales (April), India GDP (1Q), South Korea industrial output (April), Japan jobless (April), Japan industrial output (April), Portugal GDP (1Q), Turkey trade balance (April), Poland GDP (1Q), CPI (May), Lithuania GDP (1Q), Croatia GDP (1Q), Latvia GDP (1Q Final), Serbia GDP (1Q Final), South Africa M3 and private credit (April), South Africa trade balance (April), South Africa budget balance (April), Kenya consumer inflation (May), Greece retail sales (March),

-EARNINGS: Volkswagen AG, Medtronic Plc., Workday Inc., Bank of Nova Scotia, Laurentian Bank of Canada, Alrosa PAO, Alpha Bank AE.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. Energy Information Administration Petroleum Supply (March), U.S. Department of Agriculture releases crops/livestock reports (weekly).

Wednesday, June 1

-U.S. manufacturing probably barely expanded in May as lackluster overseas demand and limited business investment continue to hobble the industry, economists forecast an index from the Institute for Supply Management to show. 10:00 EDT in Washington.

-Brazil GDP (1Q). Latin America’s largest economy shrank by the most in a quarter century in 2015. Economists surveyed by the central bank expect more of the same in 2016 as consumer demand and investment have dried up. 08:00 local time in Rio de Janeiro (07:00 EDT).

-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) presents its economic outlook. 11:00 local time in Paris (05:00 EDT).

-Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky and NATO deputy Supreme Allied Commander Manfred Nielson to speak at a cyber defense forum. Event starts at 08:00 local time in Tallinn (01:00 EDT).

-Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2016 Global Technology Conference is held in San Francisco. Cisco Systems Inc., Intuit Inc. and HP Inc. are among the presenters. Through June 2.

-Sanford C. Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Conference is held in New York, featuring speakers from all industry groups including technology, financial services, energy, retail and heath. Click here for the agenda. Through June 3.

-The U.S. hosts the Seventh Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM7) in San Francisco, drawing energy ministers from 20 countries. This is a follow-up to the climate change talks last December in Paris. Ernest Moniz, U.S. energy secretary, will attend. Through June 2.

-Sotheby’s Paris hosts an auction of modern and impressionist art including works by Marc Chagall, Pierre Bonnard and Edgar Degas. Christie’s New York will hold an Imperial Sale of “Important Chinese Ceramics and Works of Art.”

-CENTRAL BANKS: Chile Central Bank meeting minutes.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (May final), U.S. construction spending (April), U.S. Fed Beige Book, U.S. motor vehicle sales (May), China manufacturing PMI (April), Caixin China manufacturing PMI (April), Nikkei Taiwan manufacturing PMI (May), Euro-area manufacturing PMI (May, final), U.K. mortgage approvals (April), U.K. manufacturing PMI (May), Switzerland GDP (1Q), Australia GDP (1Q), Indonesia CPI (May), Thailand CPI (May), South Korea current account (April), South Korea CPI (May), South Korea trade (May), South Korea Manufacturing PMI (May), Turkey manufacturing PMI (May), Russia PMI (May), Russia CPI (weekly), Poland PMI (May), Czech PMI (May), Czech budget (May), Hungary PMI (May), Slovak budget (May), South Africa manufacturing PMI (May), Greece PMI (May).

-EARNINGS: National Bank of Canada, Elkta AB, Michael Kors Holdings Ltd., Koninklijke Ahold NV.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on natural gas volume (weekly).

Thursday, June 2

-U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Governor Jerome Powell gives the keynote address on the role of regulation in today’s banking system at the Prudential Regulation Conference, hosted by Sifma. Former Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan will also speak. 08:35 EDT in Washington.

-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which contributes about 40 percent of the world’s oil supply, meets in Vienna. Begins at 10:00 local time (04:00 EDT). (Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.)

-The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets to review interest rates and stimulus programs. Rate decision at 13:45 in Vienna (07:45 EDT), followed by ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference at 14:30 (08:30 EDT). (Follow Draghi’s remarks with TOPLive blog real-time coverage here.)

-Germany’s lower house, the Bundestag, votes on a resolution backed by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to designate the Ottoman Empire’s 1915-16 campaign against Armenians as genocide, risking diplomatic conflict with Turkey. Vote about 11:00 local time in Berlin (05:00 EDT).

-Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for energy, and Ali Moshiri, Chevron Corp.’s Exploration and Production President for Latin America & Africa, will speak at a CSIS event on energy security. 10:45 EDT in Washington.

-NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski, outgoing Polish Central Bank President Marek Belka and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius to speak at Wroclaw Global Forum in Poland. Event starts at 10:00 local time in Wroclaw. (04:00 EDT). Through June 3.

-U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron discusses Britain and the European Union, answering questions from journalists and the public in an hour-long Sky News television program on the June 23 referendum. 20:00 London time (15:00 EDT).

-Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to attend business forum in Zagreb, Croatia. Agenda to be announced.

-Five-time major champion Phil Mickelson commits to play in the Jack Nicklaus Memorial Golf Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy will also compete for the $8,500,000 purse. Through June 5.

-ECONOMY: U.S. Challenger job-cut announcements (May), U.S. ADP private employment (May), U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. ISM New York manufacturing (May),  U.K. construction PMI (May), Brazil industrial production (April), South Korea GDP final release (2Q), South Korea FX reserves (May), Kazakh CPI (May), Spain unemployment (May).

-EARNINGS: Cooper Companies, Inc., Saputo Inc., Canadian Western Bank.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on U.S. natural gas prices (weekly), U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas inventory report (weekly), United National Food and Agriculture Organization food-price index (weekly), U.S. Energy Information petroleum inventory report (weekly).

Friday, June 3

-Employers in the U.S. probably added around 160,000 jobs in May after a similar gain a month earlier, economists project. Even after adjusting the data to account for 36,000 striking Verizon Communications workers, the pace of hiring may be starting to cool. Unemployment is forecast to ease to 4.9 percent from 5 percent, while worker pay probably increased. The Labor Department will issue the figures at 08:30 EDT in Washington. (Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.)

-U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will discuss the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank and the future of positive rates at the Global Interdependence Center’s Central Banking Series event. In London at 08:45 local time (03:45 EDT).

-U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Loretta Mester speaks on macro and financial stability at the Sveriges Riksbank Conference: “Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate.” Sweden Central Bank Governor Stefan Ingves delivers the opening remarks. Click here for agenda. Through June 4 in Stockholm.

-The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) brings 30,000 oncology professionals to Chicago to discuss new therapies and ongoing controversies in the field. Merck & Co., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and others will present data from clinical trials. Through June 7.

-Foreign ministers from 20 nations including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will attend a Paris conference to discuss the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Timing not determined.

-U.K. Justice Secretary Michael Gove, a leader in the Leave-EU campaign, makes the case for Britain to leave the European Union and takes questions from journalists and the public on Sky television. 20:00 London time (15:00 EDT).

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses a regional convention of her Christian Democratic Union party in the eastern state of Brandenburg at 17:30 local time (11:30 EDT). Possible topics include economic policy and the EU’s refugee deal with Turkey.

-Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada meet to discuss economic cooperation in Moscow. 10:30 local time in Moscow (03:30 EDT).

-The 15th Shangri-La Dialogue begins with a keynote speech by Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayruth Chan-Ocha. The meeting gathers global military leaders to discuss security and defense policy. Talks may be dominated by discussions on the South China Sea dispute ahead of an arbitration ruling on China’s claims to the waters, expected mid-year. 18:00 in Singapore (6:00 EDT).

-ECONOMY: U.S. trade balance (April), U.S. Markit services PMI (May final), U.S. factory orders (April), U.S. ISM non-manufacturing (May), Euro-area services PMI (May final), U.K. services PMI (May), Colombia GDP (1Q), Caixin China services PMI (May), Nikkei Hong Kong PMI (May), Turkey consumer inflation (May), Romania retail sales (April), Russia services PMI (May), Hungary retail sales (April), Czech GDP (1Q); Georgia CPI (May), South Africa whole economy PMI (May).

-ENERGY: Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count (weekly), U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission futures and options positions for oil & Commitments of Traders 
reports (weekly).

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Bulgaria (Fitch, Moody’s & S&P), Cyprus (DBRS), ESM (Moody’s), Finland (Moody’s), Ireland (S&P), San Marino (Fitch), South Africa (S&P), Sweden (DBRS).

Saturday, June 4

-Hong Kong holds the world’s biggest commemoration of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre amid rising tensions over China’s growing political and economic control of the former British colony. While the killing of hundreds of unarmed protesters by the People’s Liberation Army remains absent from mainland history books, the event remains a potent symbol in Hong Kong. Rally starts at 18:00 in Hong Kong (6:00 EDT).

-Polish opposition parties plan to resume nation-wide protests against the government.

-Deadline for Serbian parliament to convene following April 24 elections won by Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic’s Progressive Party. Vucic has 90 days to form a new government since receiving a mandate on May 23.

-Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz lectures at an event sponsored the Canadian Economics Association, followed by a press conference. In Ottawa at 12:45 EDT.

-ECONOMY: Colombia inflation (May).

(Deletes French-Israel item from Saturday.)
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