Economics
Brexit Would Embolden East Europe’s Populists and Slow Growth
- Polish GDP would fall 0.5 ppt on Brexit, Credit Agricole says
- Capital Economics sees pushback against EU if U.K. leaves EU
How Reliable Are Brexit Forecasts?
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A U.K. vote to leave the European Union next month may encourage East European governments to pursue “populist” policies that would lead to lower investment and ultimately slower economic growth, according to Capital Economics.
While the short-term impact of the June 23 vote on the region’s economies would be limited, a so-called Brexit “would weaken the prestige of the EU and give the impression that the union is reversible,” William Jackson, a London-based economist at Capital Economics, wrote in an e-mailed report on Monday. This would bolster the confidence of east European governments to “push back against EU oversight of domestic policy making, or try to extract concessions,” he said.