A Fool's Bet Against the Kentucky Derby Champ

  • Nyquist dominated in Kentucky but is in a tricky spot Saturday
  • Rain and torrid early pace could play key roles in Preakness

Exaggerator at Santa Anita Park on April 9. Photographer: Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images

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As a young gambler schooled in the fine arts of the Daily Racing Form, I was taught to hate the kind of wager I’m about to make in the Preakness Stakes: a big bet on a horse that had absolutely everything go his way in his last two races.

The horse is Exaggerator. And it’s undeniable he’s been fortunate of late. He’s leisurely jogged along at the back of the pack as the early leaders got caught up in intense speed duels that left them gasping for air and leg-weary at the end. When Exaggerator came calling late, most of them had no answer. He coasted to a resounding win in the Santa Anita Derby and then a second-place finish, behind Nyquist, in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.