Early Warning Signs of Recession Flash Faintly in U.S. Jobs Data
- Fed's labor market index down for three straight months
- Summers sees odds-on bet of recession within three years
Can Positive Earnings Drive Stock Market Gains?
As the economy again started off the year on a sour note, the glass-half-full crowd pointed to the strength of the U.S. jobs market as a reason not to worry. As long as payrolls are racking up monthly gains of 200,000 or more, the economy remains in fine fettle, or so the optimists would have it.
Take a peek below the headline jobs data, however, and there are signs that the labor market is losing some momentum. Temporary-help employment, which peaked prior to the last two recessions, is showing signs of topping out. And a broad labor-market index constructed by Federal Reserve economists -- and monitored by Chair Janet Yellen -- has fallen for three straight months, the first time that’s happened since 2009.