Deutsche Bank: This Indicator Is Sending Warning Signs for Household Incomes

Economic data points have been sending some mixed signals lately, with the jobs picture continuing to look strong but retail sales failing to meet expectations. This has caused a team of economists at Deutsche Bank to take a hard look at what they say is one of their most-liked indicators. Unfortunately, it seems to point toward the glass-half-empty argument.

"When the economic data send conflicting signals with respect to the near-term growth outlook, it is useful to focus on series that many investors may ignore," the team, led by Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna, said in a note. "Withheld income tax receipts are one of our favorite indicators, and the recent trend in this series has elevated our concern with respect to overall income growth."