Economics

Professor Sufi: An Ironclad Rule of Economics Suggests China Is Headed for a Downturn

Excesses in debt and durables.

Don't hold your breath waiting for a soft landing.

Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
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It's possible that the world's second-largest economy is already in recession, according to Amir Sufi, professor of economics at the University of Chicago and co-author of House of Debt.

Because of concerns about the quality of Chinese data, and in particular the manner in which nominal figures are deflated, economists have a number of different proxies to try to get a more accurate picture of the economy's health.