Russia-Turkey Tensions Spotlight Those Stocks With Most to Lose

How Will Putin Respond to Downing of Russian Jet?
  • Black-Sea gas pipeline discussions could come under threat
  • Potential disruption in oil supplies could see prices rise

From gas exporters to airlines, Russian and Turkish companies have much to lose should ties between the two nations worsen.

Russia was the biggest source of Turkey’s imports in 2014 at about $25 billion, surpassing China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Some 12 percent of all tourists to Turkey were from Russia last year, second only to Germany, Renaissance Capital said in a research note on Tuesday.

Turkey shot down a Russian jet along the Syrian border on Tuesday. President Vladimir Putin called it “a stab in the back.” Stocks, the lira and the ruble dropped the most in emerging markets.

Reported flight path of Russian jet. SOURCE: Office of Turkish Prime Minister
Reported flight path of Russian jet. SOURCE: Office of Turkish Prime Minister
SOURCE: Office of Turkish Prime Minister

The following companies may suffer from any deterioration in Russian-Turkish relations, according to analysts and money managers.

Gazprom PJSC

Turkey is Russia’s second-biggest market for gas exports, and relies on Gazprom to meet half of its gas needs. Russia plans a gas link to Turkey that would divert some exports away from Ukraine. Those discussions may end if tensions escalate between the two countries, said Vadim Bit-Avragim, a money manager at Kapital Asset Management LLC in Moscow.

Rosneft, Lukoil

Russia’s key oil exporters including Rosneft OJSC, Lukoil PJSC and Gazprom Neft PJSC may see the prices of Urals crude blend rise from from recent lows. The face-off “has the potential to disrupt Russian oil supplies via the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits,” Ehsan Ul-Haq, a senior analyst at KBC Energy Economics, said by e-mail.

Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel OJSC

The Russian steelmaker has invested more than $2 billion in a Turkish plant since 2007. The unit, which opened in 2011, can produce as much as 2.3 million metric tons of steel products per year. MMK, as the Russian company is known, has been considering the sale of the asset since at least 2012, but hasn’t reached a deal.

Turkish Airlines

The company became the biggest foreign carrier serving Russia in September and has increased flights to the country by more than 16 percent in 2015 as international rivals cut services, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. It expects to carry more than 1 million passengers on Russian routes this year, and is considering an increase in the number of daily flights to Moscow and the addition of six destinations.

Sberbank PJSC

The lender’s Turkish unit Denizbank, which it acquired from Belgium’s Dexia SA in 2012, posted a 21 percent drop in third-quarter profit. Sberbank in July reiterated a plan to continue its international presence and said Denizbank has been demonstrating “significant” financial growth.

Yandex NV

The Russian Internet search provider has a 5 percent share in Turkey’s search market.

Anadolu Efes

Anadolu Efes Biracilik & Malt Sanayii AS acquired SABMiller’s Eastern European operations including Russia in 2011 in return for a 24 percent stake sold to SABMiller. Russia accounts for 15 percent of Anadolu Efes’s operations, according to Vedat Mizrahi, the head of research at Istanbul-based brokerage Unlu & Co.

Enka Insaat

Russia accounts for 3 percent of the builder’s order backlog and at least 25 percent of its valuation, Mizrahi said. The company also operates two power plants in Turkey’s north using Russian gas.

Arcelik

Turkey’s biggest home-appliances maker has a production plant and a marketing unit in Russia operating since 2006, according to its website. It got 12.2 percent of its total sales from Eastern European markets including Russia in the first nine months of this year.

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