Charting the Markets: It's the China and Fed Show Again
The data disappointments from China keep coming. Consumer prices rose a weaker-than-forecast 1.3 percent in October from a year earlier. Meanwhile producer prices sunk 5.9 percent, extending the run of declines to 44 months. Coupled with recent data showing deteriorating trade, the figures open the door for further stimulus from the People's Bank of China, which has already cut interest rates six times in the past year. Add the prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike in December, and investors have a lot to consider, which is why the S&P 500 Index had its biggest drop in a month. Emerging market stocks are falling for a fourth day - led by China - bringing their decline in that period to almost 4 percent.
The MSCI All Country World Index is enduring its worst run of losses since Sept. 24. A week ago the gauge closed at its highest since Aug. 19. A lot has happened in the past seven days. Last Tuesday, the odds of a U.S. rate hike next month were 50 percent, according to Fed fund futures. Today the probability stands at 68 percent after Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report. Global stocks have rebounded 9 percent since hitting a two-year low in September. Year to date, the MSCI All Country World Index has fallen 2 percent.