How Gentrification Really Changes Cities

First there's a precious coffee bar. Then a "bagel pub" replaces a store that used to sell "urban wear." While some signs of gentrification are obvious, it takes years of data to know what exactly happens to residents as their neighborhood becomes more expensive. New research is finding that gentrification, contrary to popular belief, doesn't actually force poorer residents to leave areas at atypical rates—though that doesn't mean the changes don't have negative consequences.

A new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia looks at census data from 2002 and 2014 to compare three kinds of neighborhoods in the city: those that were gentrifying, those that were poor but not changing, and those that were already relatively wealthy. They also considered residents' credit scores as a proxy for how vulnerable they may be to being forced to leave. (An easier-to-read version is available for readers who don't enjoy academic lingo.)