Argentine Exchange Rates Are Converging on Macri's Lead in Polls
- Black market is strengthening while blue-chip swap weakens
- Macri is leading all opinion polls ahead of Nov. 22 runoff
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Two weeks before Argentina’s presidential runoff, the currency market is already indicating that opposition candidate Mauricio Macri will win.
After Macri’s surprise performance in the first round on Oct. 25 and his continued pledge to let the peso float and remove capital controls on his first day in office, the difference between the 14.45-per-dollar black market exchange rate and the blue-chip swap, a rate derived from securities trades, has narrowed to just 0.23 pesos. That’s because the blue-chip swap market is already setting the price of the peso before the vote at 14.22 per dollar, a 1.5 percent depreciation since the first-round ballot three weeks ago.