What the Superforecasters Say About When the Fed Will Lift Rates
Has Fed's Rate Waiting Game Left It at Mercy of ECB?
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You’ve asked everyone else about when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates. Now try someone with a shot at getting it right.
They’re the prognosticators dubbed “superforecasters” by Philip Tetlock, the Toronto-born researcher who gained renown in 2005 by showing that almost everyone making predictions fails. The key word is “almost.” Tetlock’s new book finds that a few people actually have some skill when it comes to predicting the future.