Charting the Markets: The Two-Day Fed Meeting Looms Large

The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting on interest rates Tuesday. It's more a case of the message policymakers convey than what they do, with the cost of borrowing forecast to stay at a record low. Put simply, there's a 4 percent chance the Fed will hike rates, according to Fed fund futures. This coming March seems to be the most likely month of a change in policy, with the probability of an increase at 58 percent. Another central bank meeting is looming at the end of the week. Economists are divided on whether the Bank of Japan will boost its record stimulus. Asian stocks fell for the first day in three, while emerging market equities dropped for a second session as the feel-good factor from China's sixth interest rate cut in a year dissipated. European equities fell for a second day.

As investors await the outcome of two major global central bank meetings, the yen has resumed its role as a refuge. The Japanese currency is rising against all 31 of its major peers. Only last week it had its biggest drop against the dollar since the end of May. The yen's strength may reflect diminishing expectations the Bank of Japan will loosen policy on Friday. Sixteen of 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BoJ to expand stimulus. The yen is the second best-performing major currency against the dollar in 2015 after the Swiss Franc. It has fallen 0.6 percent.