Economics
Top Forecaster Sees Rate Pressure Returning to Haunt Forint
- Ebury sees forint weakening to 320 per euro by year-end
- Hungary central bank may extend rate cuts to 1.2%, Ebury says
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The forint’s most accurate forecaster is also one of its most pessimistic. Ebury Partners is betting that the outlook for further rate reductions and slowing growth in Hungary may push the currency to lows last seen in January.
Subdued inflation may prompt policy makers to embark on a third round of rate cuts since 2012, weakening the currency 2.5 percent to 320 per euro by the end of the year, according to Ebury, which had the best track record for the forint in the four quarters ending Sept., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.