- Higher investment limit is positive for debt: FirstRand
- Benchmark 10-year yield declines to lowest since 2013
India relaxed curbs on foreign ownership of its debt, giving global funds more access to Asia’s best-performing bond market.
The limit on foreign institutional holdings of government notes will be denominated in rupees instead of dollars and the cap will be raised in phases to 5 percent of outstanding debt by March 2018, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement Tuesday. The Finance Ministry estimates current overseas ownership is about 3.8 percent, and the central bank said the increase will help attract 1.2 trillion rupees ($18.2 billion) of additional investment.
Overseas funds have almost exhausted the previous limit of $30 billion that was meant to shield local markets against capital outflows, and investors including Pacific Investment Management Co. have been pressing for greater access to India’s sovereign bonds. Rajan had outlined the framework for easing limits in August and said the reforms will proceed even if the Federal Reserve delays increasing U.S. interest rates.
“The move reflects India’s confidence to deal with any Fed-induced volatility,” said Paresh Nayar, the Mumbai-based head of currency and money markets at the local unit of South African lender FirstRand Ltd. The decision to raise the investment limit is positive for bonds, he said.
Indian bonds rallied, pushing the 10-year sovereign yield to a two-year low, after the RBI relaxed foreign ownership curbs and cut its benchmark rate. The central bank also said it will increase the limit on overseas investment in loans of state governments to 2 percent of the outstanding stock by 2018.
The yield on notes due May 2025 slumped 14 basis points to 7.59 percent as of 2:58 p.m. in Mumbai. That’s the lowest for benchmark 10-year debt since July 2013. Rupee-denominated bonds have returned 6.2 percent this year, the most in Asia, indexes compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors have lost 3.5 percent on Indonesian bonds in the same period.
Foreigners hold less than 5 percent of India’s outstanding sovereign debt, one of the lowest proportions in Asia, according to DBS Bank Ltd. Such holdings stand at more than 35 percent in Malaysia and Indonesia and are above 10 percent in South Korea and Thailand, according to the lender.
Rajan’s War Chest
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has built a war chest of near-record foreign-exchange reserves as the nation seeks to avoid a repeat of 2013, when the Fed’s signal that it would end its bond purchases saw investors pull about $9 billion from Indian notes in the June to August period, causing the rupee to plunge to a historic low.
The rupee has rebounded about 4.3 percent from an unprecedented 68.845 a dollar on Aug. 28, 2013, outperforming South Africa’s rand, Indonesia’s rupiah, Turkey’s lira and Brazil’s real. Morgan Stanley dubbed the currencies the “Fragile Five” that year for being the most at risk of capital flight.
Narrower current-account deficits in Indonesia and India put them in a stronger position to endure outflows than two years ago, Jens Nystedt, managing director at New York-based money manager Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in an interview earlier this month.