Yorgos Karahalis/Bloomberg

Timeline: What’s Next in the Greek Crisis Saga

Greece is seeking to conclude talks with its creditors to secure up to 86 billion euros of three-year loans needed to keep the country in the euro.

Greek officials are confident an agreement will be reached before Aug. 20, when Greece must pay 3.2 billion euros to the European Central Bank for maturing bonds. German officials said quality is more important than speed and bridge financing may be necessary if a third bailout can't be sealed in time.

Other key dates

 

August:

  • ECB stress tests of Greek banks begin; asset quality review to be completed by month-end.
  • Aug. 12: Merkel returns from 3-week vacation to host cabinet meeting, providing forum for progress on Greece to be discussed.
  • Aug. 12: Greece to auction 875 million euros in 13-week T-bills.
  • Aug. 14: Greece needs to refinance 1.4 billion euros in T-bills.
    • Greek government aims to submit bailout bill to parliament.
    • Also possible date for Eurogroup conference call on Greece if Memorandum of Understanding has been agreed.
  • Aug. 17 or 18: Probable date for special session of Bundestag to vote on Greek bailout.
  • Aug. 18-19: Greek parliament vote on bailout agreement expected.
  • Aug. 20: Greece needs to repay ECB 3.2 billion euros in bond redemptions; creditors may need to provide another bridge loan, depending on progress in negotiations.
    • Would be very surprising if program agreed in time for parliamentary ratifications and disbursement of funds to meet Aug. 20 deadline, JPMorgan economist Malcolm Barr says.
    • After this point, ECB’s decisions on its Emergency Liquidity Assistance program could become controversial again if likelihood of deal in doubt.

 

September:

  • Greece’s ruling Syriza party set to hold emergency congress as Prime Minister Tsipras tries to quell internal opposition; party split may force early snap elections.

 

October:

  • ECB stress tests of Greek banks to assess recapitalization due to be completed.
    • Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Alberto Gallo estimates 25 billion euros of European Stability Mechanism funds planned should be enough to recapitalize the four Greek banks; warns any delay in negotiations also leads to delay in recapitalization process.
  • First review of Greek bailout deal to assess adherence to terms.
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