At best, a vote will increase the likelihood of certain outcomes, but they aren't binary. Simply put: whatever way the vote goes, there are paths to exiting the euro, just as there are to a new bailout.
Bloomberg Intelligence economist Maxime Sbaihi has outlined the roadmaps and probable timeline in this diagram.
If a 'no' vote wins the referendum, a 'Grexit' becomes the most likely scenario, but it is by no means certain since fresh negotiations featuring alternate terms could still be on the table. Still, as Sbaihi says; "It's hard to see how a deal could be found in the context of a 'no' vote, with Greek authorities coming back at the negotiation table with an even less conciliatory stance."
When it comes to a 'yes' vote, the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone do decrease, but don't disappear altogether. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would likely resign, according to Sbaihi, and there may have to be new elections called before any negotiations restart.
So don't think that come Monday, after the ballots are counted, where Greece goes will be resolved.
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