Eleven Dates to Watch for on Ukraine’s Road to Debt Resolution

As Ukraine and its international creditors show little sign of backing down from a stalemate, an agreement on restructuring $19 billion of its sovereign debt still looks some way off.

Below is a list of significant dates as negotiations intensify and the International Monetary Fund considers whether to release the next portion of aid for the country.

June 30: Washington Meeting

Ukraine, the creditor committee and the International Monetary Fund are due to meet for talks in the U.S. capital. Ukraine’s Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said she won’t attend the talks because they are intended to discuss the IMF’s latest economic forecasts for Ukraine. Debt negotiations may take place after the technical talks with the IMF, Ukrainian government debt envoy Vitaliy Lisovenko said.

July 3: Ukreximbank Voting Deadline

State Export-Import Bank of Ukraine, known as Ukreximbank, will hold a vote on proposed changes to its 2015, 2016 and 2018 notes, with results to be announced on July 7.

The bank has $750 million of debt maturing on July 27. A group made up of some of the bank’s biggest creditors said in April they support a proposal to move the due date on that bond to 2022 and increase the coupon size with no change to the principal.

July: IMF Board Meeting

The IMF’s executive board will meet to decide if Ukraine has made enough progress on reforms to be awarded the next slice of a $17.5 billion loan. That tranche will be provided after the first review of the program has been completed, hopefully in the coming weeks, Jaresko said in a statement on June 26.

The IMF made a $5 billion payment to Ukraine on March 11. The rest of the loan is tied to quarterly reviews that end with a $631 million tranche in December 2018. The fund said on June 9 it can keep supporting the country even if Ukraine stops payments to bondholders.

July 24: Next Coupon Payment Due

A $120 million coupon on sovereign bonds maturing in July 2017 comes due on July 24. The country will probably issue a moratorium before this coupon is due to be paid, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note June 25.

Ukraine also has a $60 million coupon due on Aug. 23 and a $58 million coupon due on Sept. 23.

Sept. 15: Second IMF Review

The third tranche of the IMF’s $17.5 billion loan -- $1.7 billion -- is scheduled to be paid following the conclusion of the second program review.

Sept. 20: CDS Contract Expires

Issuers may have to pay out on Ukraine credit-default swaps that expire on Sept. 20 if the country imposes a moratorium or agrees to implement cuts to bonds’ principal or coupons before then. Contracts will also expire on Dec. 20.

Sept. 23: Sovereign-Bond Maturity

The first sovereign bond to mature since Ukraine called in the IMF is $500 million of Eurobonds. That makes it the “real, hard deadline” for the restructuring talks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Vadim Khramov.

Oct. 13: Sovereign-Bond Maturity

The second sovereign bond to come due this year is a 600 million-euro ($673 million) Eurobond.

Dec. 15: Third IMF Review

The fourth tranche of the IMF’s $17.5 billion loan -- $1.7 billion -- is scheduled to be paid following the conclusion of the third program review.

Dec. 20: Russia Bond Matures

The $3 billion bond sold to Russia in December 2014 comes due, raising the prospect of default if Vladimir Putin’s administration continues to hold out against a deal to change the terms. Russia claims the security shouldn’t be included in Ukraine’s sovereign restructuring because it’s state aid.

The IMF staff have formed a preliminary view that the bond should be classified as official rather than private debt, a person familiar with the matter said on June 23. The fund cannot lend in arrears to a country that has defaulted on official debt.

Dec. 31: Minsk II implementation deadline

The 13 measures, including the pullout of all foreign troops from Ukraine, restoration of the border and constitutional reform, have to be completed under the Minsk II Agreement.

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