Obama Election Odds Rise in Tandem With S&P 500: BGOV Barometer

Wagers on President Barack Obama’s re-election are rising in tandem with stock prices, just as the fortunes of his Republican predecessor George W. Bush did in 2004, suggesting incumbency counts more than party affiliation in the markets.

The BGOV Barometer shows the probability Obama, a Democrat, will win a second term, as measured by the online prediction market Intrade, has risen and fallen in close alignment with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Intrade odds of an Obama victory reached a 16-month peak last week as the S&P 500 advanced to the highest level since 2007.