U.S. Jobs, Yellen, Lew, Tankan, ECB: Week Ahead June 28-July 5

U.S. employers probably added about 200,000 workers for a fifth straight month in June as the jobless rate held at a six-year low of 6.3 percent, a report in the coming week may show.

U.S. manufacturing and service industries expanded in June, separate reports may also indicate.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew will discuss U.S.-China relations at an event hosted by the U.S.-China Business Council.

Japan reports its Tankan business-confidence data, with large manufacturers’ confidence forecast to be positive for a fifth quarter. The European Central Bank makes a rate decision.

The World Cup soccer tournament in Brazil reaches the quarterfinal stage, while the Wimbledon tennis grand slam heads toward its climax in London. Tiger Woods returns to the PGA tour at an event in Bethesda, Maryland.

The U.S. celebrates its Independence Day holiday.

SATURDAY, JUNE 28

-Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari visits China for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the two countries step up dialogue under India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The countries, which fought a border war in 1962, are looking to boost trade ties and resolve a boundary dispute.

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

-The Wimbledon tennis tournament continues in southwest London. Andy Murray is seeking to defend his title and Serena Williams is the No. 1 seed in the women’s event. Click here for today’s match schedule.

-PGA tour. The $6.5 million Quicken Loans National continues at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Maryland. The event marks the return to the U.S. PGA Tour for Tiger Woods following back surgery. Through June 29.

SUNDAY, JUNE 29

-Swedish politicians and executives begin a week of presentations and discussions at Almedalen on the island of Gotland. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Finance Minister Anders Borg will attend. Through July 6.

-European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso visits Serbia and meets with the European Union candidate nation’s officials in Belgrade. Time to be determined.

-The Bank for International Settlements publishes its annual report. Time to be determined.

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

MONDAY, JUNE 30

-Argentina’s debt deadline. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government faces a bond payment on its restructured debt. Click here for latest stories.

-Volcker Rule reporting. Under the Dodd-Frank Act’s Volcker Rule, U.S. banks with more than with $50 billion in consolidated assets and liabilities and certain overseas-based banks must begin to record and report quantitative information about their trading to the Federal Reserve. The rule bans banks that benefit from federal deposit insurance from making certain kinds of trades that could trigger a government bailout.

-Aspen Ideas Festival. Participants this week include Carlyle Group LP Co-Founder David Rubenstein, former Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski and former National Security Agency Director Keith Alexander. Click here for schedule. Through July 3.

-Obama-Bachelet meeting. U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Chilean President Michelle Bachelet at the White House for talks on topics including U.S. spying programs and the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Time to be announced.

-Canada special elections. Voters will replace four federal lawmakers who represent seats in Ontario and Alberta, including two who are retiring from Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s ruling Conservative Party. The results will shed light on whether the Liberal Party’s Justin Trudeau can translate his lead in polls into seats in the House of Commons. Voting ends in Ontario at 21:00 EDT, in Alberta at 19:30 (21:30 EDT).

-U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron faces lawmakers in the House of Commons after he tried to block former Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming president of the European Commission. 15:30 in London (10:30 EDT).

-German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble makes two speeches during a visit to Madrid at 12:00 CET (06:00 EDT) and 17:20 (11:20 EDT).

-Japan reports May industrial output after it fell 2.8% in April. A sales tax in April prompted consumers to cut purchases, with vehicle sales falling that month and in May. 08:50 in Tokyo (06/29 19:50 EDT).

-International Monetary Fund officials present a report on the Czech Republic at a news conference with Deputy Finance Minister Jan Gregor. 15:15 CET in Prague (09:15 EDT).

-Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Szczurek speaks at a conference in Warsaw. 11:00 CET (05:00 EDT).

-The U.S. Department of Agriculture issues updates on quarterly grain inventories and planting estimates. 12:00 in Washington.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for weekly schedule.

-U.S. Supreme Court is in session for 2013-14 period. Click this line for the weekly schedule.

-ECONOMY: Pending home sales (May), Chicago purchasing managers’ index (June), Brazil primary budget balance (May), U.K. mortgage approvals (May), Slovenia CPI (SVCPYOY) (June), Serbia GDP (SEGDYTOT) (first quarter, final), South Africa trade balance (May), Turkey trade balance (May).

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

TUESDAY, JULY 1

-U.S. manufacturing probably expanded in June at about the same pace as a month earlier, when it grew by the most this year, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Institute for Supply Management issues its index at 10:00 in Washington.

-Japan reports Tankan business confidence, with large manufacturers forecast to be positive for a fifth quarter, even after a sales tax increase in April damped consumption. 08:50 in Tokyo (06/30 19:50 EDT).

-China’s official manufacturing PMI may have risen in June, after expanding at the fastest pace in five months in May in a sign the government’s measures to counter an economic slowdown are gaining traction. 09:00 in Beijing (06/30 21:00 EDT).

-Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew will discuss U.S.-China relations at an event hosted by the U.S.-China Business Council. Lew’s talk comes in advance of this month’s meeting of the finance chiefs of the world’s two largest economies at the U.S.- China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing. 08:00 in Washington.

-U.S. offshore accounts. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act takes effect, requiring overseas banks to report information on U.S. account holders to the Internal Revenue Service or face withholding taxes. The U.S. has reached deals with more than 75 jurisdictions to exchange tax information.

-U.S. dockworker talks. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union, which represents about 20,000 workers, faces a deadline to reach a deal to replace its current six-year contract with terminal operators and shipping lines at 29 West Coast ports. Labor and management representatives are negotiating in San Francisco and say the formal deadline to reach an agreement is 17:00 (20:00 EDT). Both sides said earlier, on June 4, that the deadline was midnight local time on Monday, June 30.

-Panama presidential inauguration. President-elect Juan Carlos Varela takes office after pledging to complete the Panama Canal’s $5.25 billion expansion project on time and to reduce inequality in Latin America’s fastest-growing economy. The ceremony starts at 08:00 (09:00 EDT) in the Panama City soccer stadium.

-The Bank of England publishes the record of its Financial Policy Committee’s meeting on June 17. 09:30 in London (04:30 EDT).

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks at a briefing with International Monetary Fund official Bas Bakker about the IMF’s review of Austria. 11:00 CET in Vienna (05:00 EDT).

-ECONOMY: U.S. vehicle sales (June), Brazil trade balance (June), HSBC China Purchasing Manager’s Index (EC11CHPM) (June), Japan wages data (May), South Korea consumer prices (June), South Korea trade data (June), U.K. manufacturing PMI (June), euro-area manufacturing PMI (June, final), euro-area unemployment (May), German unemployment (June), Czech Republic GDP (CZGDPSAY) (first quarter, final), HSBC Manufacturing PMIs for Turkey, Poland, Czech Republic and Russia (June), Russia GDP (RUDPRYOY) (first quarter, final), South Africa manufacturing PMI (June).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Australia rate decision, Romania rate decision.

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 2

-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers the inaugural Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund. Camdessus, IMF managing director from 1987 until 2000, is scheduled to give opening comments, while IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde will offer welcoming remarks. 11:00 in Washington.

-General Motors Co. switch-defect lawsuits. The judge who oversaw GM’s bankruptcy will hear lawyers’ arguments before deciding whether customers who say their cars’ value declined due to recalls can sue the new GM, or must try to get money from the old GM, its bankrupt predecessor, which has few assets left to pay creditors. 09:45 in New York.

-The Bank of Japan announces companies’ inflation expectations, which are compiled from its Tankan survey. Time to be determined.

-Iran talks. The world powers and Iran resume another round of negotiations in Vienna on the country’s nuclear program. Officials have indicated talks may take place for two weeks ahead of a July 20 deadline to reach a final accord.

-Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addresses the European Parliament and may give details on his plans to lead the EU into an era of more expansive fiscal policy. 09:00 CET (03:00 EDT) in Strasbourg, France.

-ECONOMY: Challenger U.S. job cuts (June), ADP U.S. employment (June), U.S. factory orders (May), Brazil industrial production (May), Bank of Japan monetary base (June), U.K. construction PMI (June), U.K. Nationwide house-price index (June), Spanish unemployment (SPUECHNG) (June), Romania GDP (ROGDPQOQ) (first quarter, final), South Africa consumer confidence (second quarter).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Poland rate decision, Uganda rate decision.

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

THURSDAY, JULY 3

-U.S. jobs report. Employers probably added about 200,000 workers for a fifth straight month in June and the jobless rate held at a six-year low of 6.3 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey as of June 26. The figures indicate demand is bouncing back from the first quarter, when the economy slumped by the most in five years. A pickup in hiring that’s accompanied by stronger wage gains would provide a bigger boost for the economy. The Labor Department issues the data at 08:30 in Washington.

-U.S. service providers from construction companies to retailers probably expanded in June at close to the fastest pace since August. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which measures the industries that make up almost 90 percent of the economy, will be issued at 10:00 in Washington.

-The U.S. trade deficit probably narrowed in May, indicating an increase in exports will bolster the economy after a first-quarter slump. The Commerce Department will release the figures at 08:30 in Washington.

-ECB policy decision. The ECB will probably keep interest rates unchanged after cutting its benchmark rate to a record low, introducing a negative deposit rate and announcing targeted loans to stimulate lending. The decision will be announced at 13:45 CET in Frankfurt (07:45 EDT) and President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference 45 minutes later.

-An IMF delegation concludes a progress review in Ukraine before releasing the second tranche of a $17 billion bailout loan agreed upon in May. Timing to be determined.

-Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and central bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva address London investors via a video link. 10:15 in London (05:15 EDT) and 12:00, respectively.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny speak on Europe and the euro at a business conference arranged by Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party. Session starts at 15:00 CET in Berlin (09:00 EDT). ECB President Mario Draghi, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble speak at a session starting at 19:15 CET.

-The Food & Agriculture Organization publishes its food-price index for June, with updates on cereals supply and demand. 09:00 in London (04:00 EDT).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-U.S. equity markets close at 13:00 in advance of the July 4 holiday.

-Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens speaks in Hobart. Time to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), China non-manufacturing PMI (June), China HSBC Services PMI (EC11SERP) (June), Hong Kong retail sales (May), U.K. services PMI (June), euro-area services PMI (June, final), euro-area composite PMI (June, final), Turkey CPI (TUCPIY) (June).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Swedish rate decision

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

FRIDAY, JULY 4

-Independence Day. U.S. national holiday celebrating the United States’ declaration of independence from England in 1776. Equity and bond markets are closed.

-U.S. House panel court deadline in insider-trading probe. The House Ways and Means Committee and a staff member have until today to explain to a federal judge in a filing why they have failed to respond to subpoenas. The Securities and Exchange Commission says the panel and staff member might have leaked health-insurance policy information used in insider trades.

-Japan Automobile Dealers Association will probably report domestic vehicle sales declined in June to the lowest level this year after the nation’s consumption tax was raised in April. 11:00 in Tokyo. (07/03 22:00 EDT).

-ECONOMY: German factory orders (May), Russia may report CPI (June).

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Belgium (Moody’s), Bulgaria (Fitch), EFSF (Fitch), Estonia (S&P), Hungary (Moody’s), Netherlands (Moody’s), Norway (DBRS), Sweden (Fitch).

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

SATURDAY, JULY 5

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits China from July 5-8. Germany is China’s largest trading partner in the European Union and the meeting follows a visit by President Xi Jinping to Germany in March, when the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on renminbi clearing and settlement in Frankfurt.

-World Cup in Brazil. Click here for match schedule.

-Wimbledon tennis. Click here for today’s match schedule.

(An earlier version of this story was corrected to omit the U.S. Chamber of Commerce as a co-host of July 1 Lew event.)

To contact the reporters on this story: Greg Miles in New York at gmiles1@bloomberg.net; James Amott in London at jamott@bloomberg.net; Jim McDonald in Tokyo at jmcdonald8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at adavidson@bloomberg.net Nancy Moran, Tal Barak Harif

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