El Nino Risk Seen Underpriced as Noble May Advance
This article is for subscribers only.
Palm oil, sugar, cocoa and wheat are among crops that may be most hurt by an El Nino this year, according to Barclays Plc, which said commodity markets haven’t fully priced in the risks.
About a 20 percent probability of a strong El Nino is reflected in soft-commodity markets, compared with the 60 percent to 70 percent odds seen by meteorologists, analysts led by Ephrem Ravi wrote in report today. The weather pattern may boost earnings at companies from Noble Group Ltd. to Wilmar International Ltd. and their shares may rally, Ravi wrote.