Goldman Strategist Sees High Chance of 10% Market Drop

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin has some good news, and some bad news.

First, the bad news. There’s a good chance the U.S. stock market will see a 10 percent drop sometime during the next 12 months. Well, as far as precision goes, “good chance” is not good enough for a quant like Kostin, so he gives an exact probability: 67 percent odds of a 10 percent retreat from a peak in the next 12 months.