Keystone Potential Bargaining Chip in Congress Debt Talks

House Republicans are trying to agree on what they want from Democrats in exchange for votes to raise the U.S. debt limit as soon as next month.

Majority Leader Eric Cantor and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan have suggested insisting on approval of the TransCanada Corp. (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline as a condition of a higher debt ceiling. Representative Tim Huelskamp of Kansas is among Republicans who want to take a harder line and demand major changes to President Barack Obama’s health-care law.

House Republicans will plot strategy next week at their annual legislative conference at a Maryland resort. They are set on extracting some type of concession from Democrats who say they won’t negotiate over the must-pass measure.

“Anything that is holding back our economic growth, which tamps down upward mobility, would be something I’d be very favorable to,” Cantor of Virginia said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Even as they plan their tactics, Republican leaders have repeatedly said they have no interest in holding the U.S. economy hostage over the issue.

“I don’t think that anyone, or most, would say let’s go and take a risk that is absolutely unknown by not making sure that we resolve the debt ceiling,” Cantor said.

One option for Republicans includes repealing the health-care law’s promise to reimburse insurers in some cases if benefits outpace premiums. Another would require the U.S. to consider compliance costs when setting environmental rules.

Partial Shutdown

Congress and Obama agreed in October to suspend the debt limit until Feb. 7 as part of an agreement to end a 16-day partial government shutdown caused by some Republicans’ refusal to fund the Affordable Care Act. The face-off ended Oct. 17, the day Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said the U.S. would exhaust its borrowing authority.

This week, Lew told congressional leaders that the Treasury’s so-called extraordinary measures to stay within the limit will run out late next month. Congress should raise the debt limit “before February 7, 2014, and certainly before late February,” he said in a letter.

There’s a risk that nobody blinks. That’s what happened leading up to October’s shutdown, and Republican leaders say they don’t want to repeat that scenario.

House Speaker John Boehner, whose Republican members were forced to retreat and end the shutdown, said in an interview last night that forcing the impasse over Obamacare was a “predictable disaster.”

Democrats’ Line

Senate Democrats have drawn a firm line, insisting they will back Obama’s demand that no policy strings or spending cuts be attached to a debt ceiling increase.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters Jan. 16 that the president stressed his position during a White House meeting with Senate Democrats a day earlier.

“One thing the president did make very clear yesterday -- and he was extremely emphatic, as he was the last go-round on this -- he, we will not negotiate on extending the debt limit,” the Nevada Democrat said.

Boehner’s spokesman, Michael Steel, said in an e-mail this week that “a ‘clean’ debt limit increase simply won’t pass in the House.”

“We hope and expect the White House will work with us on a timely, fiscally responsible solution,” Steel said.

Keystone Pipeline

The State Department is overseeing an environmental review to estimate the extent that Keystone would contribute to global warming, which has become a central issue in the effort by TransCanada to win approval to build the pipeline.

It will be hard to find enough House Republican votes to raise the debt limit if Democrats withhold their support. Republicans would need 217 votes among their 233 members to raise the limit with conditions, even as an opening gambit.

Several Republicans are resistant to raising the limit at all or have said they want major concessions, like repealing all or large parts of Obamacare, in exchange for doing so.

“It’s about spending,” Huelskamp said in a phone interview from his rural Kansas district. He said it “doesn’t make sense” for Republicans to raise the debt limit to send more Medicaid money to states like New York and California that opted to expand the program.

Huelskamp said he’d also like to have a debate on tax policy at next week’s meeting, though he’s “not optimistic” that fellow House Republicans, particularly leadership, will embrace a large fight.

To contact the reporter on this story: Derek Wallbank in Washington at dwallbank@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jodi Schneider at jschneider50@bloomberg.net

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