Taiwan Dollar Rally Seen Ending on Intervention: Market Reversal

Trading patterns suggest the rally that drove the Taiwan dollar to an eight-month high will end on speculation that central bank Governor Perng Fai-nan will step up intervention to support exporters.

The currency’s 0.7 percent advance since the Federal Reserve unexpectedly maintained its bond-purchase program on Sept. 18 pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 29 on Oct. 4, below the 30 threshold that typically signals a reversal, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Taiwan dollar’s commodity channel index stayed below minus 100 in the last four trading days, which some technical analysts interpret as meaning the U.S. currency was oversold.