Europe’s Hot Spell to Persist in August After July Heatwave
Germany may be as much as 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average on some days through Aug. 10, Andreas Gassner, a meteorologist at Meteomedia AG in Gais, Switzerland, said July 30 by e-mail. MetraWeather, Deutscher Wetterdienst and MDA Information Systems Inc. also predicted hot weather in most of Europe for this month, while WSI Corp. and MeteoGroup U.K. Ltd. said the warm spell will end.
“The recent heatwave in Europe has occurred with rapid warming in sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic,” Bradley Harvey, an operational meteorologist at MDA in Gaithersburg, Maryland, said July 29 in an e-mailed report. “A developing storm system in the eastern Atlantic will promote a resurgence of heat across the west of Europe.”
Day-ahead electricity prices in Germany, a benchmark for the rest of Europe, are on their longest weekly rising streak since 2011 as hot weather boosts power use by air-conditioners and fans. The heat makes thermal power stations less effective and available generation capacity July 30 was 20 percent lower than on a typical winter day in December, according to data from European Energy Exchange AG.
Temperatures will be as much as 3 degrees Celsius higher than average this week in Germany, eastern France and Italy, Byron Drew, lead forecaster at MetraWeather in Reading, England, said July 29 by e-mail. Above-average temperatures are expected in Germany, Spain and Scandinavia through Aug. 11 and Italy will be warmer than average through Aug. 18.
Germany had 290 sunny hours in July, the most since 2006 and 39 percent above the long-term average, according to Deutscher Wetterdienst, the national weather office based in Offenbach, near Frankfurt. Germany has 198 hours of sunshine on average in August, Andreas Friedrich, a meteorologist at Deutscher Wetterdienst, said July 30 by phone.
The average temperature for the month is 16.4 degrees Celsius, based on the 1961-1990 reference period. The hottest level ever measured in August was 40.2 degrees Celsius in 2003, also a German year-round record, according to the forecaster.
“It doesn’t look like we are going to break this record,” Friedrich said. “It’s not impossible, but it would be a surprise.”
Days with temperatures of at least 30 degrees Celsius are deemed “hot” in Germany, according to Deutscher Wetterdienst. The southwest region of Rheinfelden had 11 hot days in July, the most in the country.
German solar output will be above average this month and may reach a record 25 gigawatts tomorrow, Meteomedia’s Gassner said. The nation produced a record 24 gigawatts of electricity from solar installations on July 21, according to EEX data on Bloomberg.
Day-ahead baseload power, for delivery around the clock tomorrow, settled at 36.68 euros ($48.51) a megawatt-hour in a daily auction on EPEX Spot SE in Paris today. The contract has increased for four weeks, the longest run of gains since November 2011.
Northern Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K. will see above average wind generation this month, Harvey said.
“Calmer conditions are expected in the southern and eastern Europe, where high pressure keeps conditions stable,” he said. German daily wind output averaged 2,298 megawatts over the past 30 days compared to an average of 4,802 megawatts for the past year, according to EEX data on Bloomberg.
German wind power generation next week is forecast to average 1,696 megawatts, according to Bloomberg’s wind power model for Germany. In the U.K., daily average wind generation is expected to decline to 1,211 megawatts next week, from an average of 1,916 megawatts this weekend, the Bloomberg model shows.
MeteoGroup predicts European temperatures to drop in the first half of this month. Northern Europe, except Poland, will be cooler than normal in August and September, Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI said July 24.
“The first half of August will be cooler than recently as low pressure systems move slowly across northern Britain toward Scandinavia,” Stephen Davenport, senior energy meteorologist at MeteoGroup said yesterday by e-mail. “Later in August there are some signs of a degree of warming returning.”
The U.K. had 19 consecutive days in July when temperatures were higher than 28 degrees Celsius, according to the Met Office. While the period is being referred to as a heatwave, the definition varies depending on the location, Laura Young, a spokeswoman for the national forecaster, said by phone from Exeter, England.
The average temperature in the U.K. next week will be 15.9 degrees Celsius, according to the ECMWF model supplied by MetraWeather at 7:55 a.m. London time. That compares with a seasonal norm of 16.2 degrees.
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