Obama Guesses His Way to Trillions in Health Savings

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- During his 2008 presidentialcampaign, Barack Obama relied on a standard applause line, apromise that his health-care plan would “lower premiums by up to$2,500 for a typical family per year.” Cue cheers -- or jeers ifyou were a health-policy expert. For them, his vow wasridiculous. There was no time frame attached to the promise.There was no plan for realizing it. It was change no one quitebelieved in. He might as well have promised every American apuppy.

But the number wasn’t derived from the ether. It came froman actual study, by Harvard University researchers and Obamaadvisers David Cutler, David Blumenthal and Jeffrey Liebman. Thethree had added up plausible savings from a slew of health-caredelivery-system reforms and then divided that number by the sizeof the U.S. population.